(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)
None of you asked for Maryland, but I wanted to redraw a state in which I couldn’t use townships and incorporated municipalities as a crutch. Four of Maryland’s five largest communities are unincorporated – Columbia, Silver Spring, Ellicott City and Germantown.
Plus, having lived in Maryland for quite awhile, I wanted to do a state that I actually had a local feel for. Lastly, Democrats control both the General Assembly and the Governorship, so no quips about this map being “unrealistic”!
I apologize for the title ahead of time – I’ve seen tourist gear with that slogan one too many times flying out of BWI….
My goals:
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Strengthen Kratovil (1st)
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Pack Republicans into Bartlett (6th)
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Keep all other Democrats at their previous levels or 65%, whichever is lower.
(When you have this many Democrats to protect….)
Anyways, here’s the map (click for full-size version):
Update: I realized I mis-merged some shapes in my GIS and this lead to a misrepresentation of the 1st and 5th in Anne Arundel County. Fixed.
So normally, there’d be a nice map of the state broken up by municipalities and colored in based on McCain/Obama performance. In Maryland, this was harder: I consolidated precincts to match up with Census 2000’s voting tabulation districts (VTDs). Sometimes, in cases where precincts changed significantly, I consolidated some VTDs, too. I’ve creatively named these consolidated VTDs “CVTDs”.
Also, tabulating data by CVTD is a pain in the ass. Seriously. So I only created CVTDs for counties that had a chance of being split. So here’s the map, colored by CVTD for some counties (I wasn’t going to split Calvert, St. Mary’s, the Eastern Shore, or the Panhandle).
District-by-district, here goes (numbers are: Population, Voters, %African American, Obama%, McCain%):
| 1 | 662,203 | 357,190 | 26.89% | 56.48% | 42.11% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 117,748 | 65,392 | 20.21% | 56.33% | 41.93% | |
| Caroline | 29,772 | 13,218 | 14.77% | 37.61% | 60.64% | |
| Cecil | 85,951 | 42,494 | 3.91% | 41.57% | 56.14% | |
| Dorchester | 30,674 | 15,274 | 28.39% | 45.25% | 53.48% | |
| Kent | 19,197 | 10,020 | 17.41% | 49.43% | 48.95% | |
| Prince George’s | 148,552 | 87,295 | 59.27% | 88.42% | 10.86% | |
| Queen Anne’s | 40,563 | 24,045 | 8.78% | 35.66% | 62.74% | |
| Somerset | 24,747 | 9,924 | 41.10% | 48.16% | 50.76% | |
| Talbot | 33,812 | 20,328 | 15.36% | 44.45% | 54.09% | |
| Wicomico | 84,644 | 41,854 | 23.29% | 46.44% | 52.20% | |
| Worcester | 46,543 | 27,346 | 16.66% | 41.59% | 57.07% |
This is the district we were all wondering about, Frank Kratovil’s 1st. Before, the 1st took in all of the Eastern Shore, a chunk each of Anne Arundel, Harford, and Baltimore counties. Those parts were absolutely brutal, so I removed the the BaltCo (35% Obama)/Harford (33% Obama) parts completely. Additionally, instead of taking in the Republican pats along the North Shore, the district runs through the city of Annapolis proper and into PG County. Yes, the district reaches across the bay, but the old district did this too. Plus now, I can use the Bay Bridge as an excuse, as both ascents to the bridge are in this district now. Obama lost the AA part of the district 39-59, but he won the reconfigured part of Anne Arundel 56-42. We weren’t going to more artfully draw Baltimore, so for Democratic strength, the new 1st looks to Prince George’s County – Obama’s 88-11 performance there anchors this district. Overall, Obama scored 56% here – up a whopping 16%.
| 2 | 662,315 | 309,805 | 25.58% | 60.34% | 37.71% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 419,630 | 204,167 | 21.76% | 57.30% | 40.74% | |
| Baltimore City | 143,321 | 56,010 | 42.46% | 79.02% | 19.26% | |
| Harford | 99,364 | 49,628 | 17.36% | 51.75% | 46.08% |
Dutch Ruppersberger’s district doesn’t change much – still the southern half of Harford, an arm across Northern BaltCo, and a section of the city. However, there’s no awkward arm across the Patapsco into Anne Arundel this time. The Harford section is a tad less Democratic, the BaltCo section a bit more, and Baltimore City a bit less. However, the removal of Anne Arundel bumps this district to 60%, up about 0.5%.
| 3 | 662,016 | 356,350 | 18.53% | 60.69% | 37.37% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 108,683 | 57,529 | 17.90% | 50.80% | 47.30% | |
| Baltimore | 239,472 | 126,645 | 22.89% | 61.92% | 35.97% | |
| Baltimore City | 74,391 | 32,258 | 17.57% | 72.34% | 25.89% | |
| Howard | 239,470 | 139,918 | 14.76% | 60.95% | 37.20% |
Surprisingly, I think this incarnation of the 3rd is less gerrymandered than before – there’s no one-block wide sliver connecting to distinct sections. The major change from before is the placement of almost all of Howard County into this district, which had been located mostly in the 7th. Instead of making a westward facing loop through Baltimore as before to hit Towson, this district makes an eastward facing U. Obama got 61%, up 2% from before.
| 4 | 661,820 | 293,331 | 51.60% | 82.43% | 16.65% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery | 309,396 | 153,066 | 22.75% | 71.41% | 27.28% | |
| Prince George’s | 352,424 | 140,265 | 76.92% | 94.46% | 5.06% |
Donna Edwards’ district also isn’t changed much. A large section of upcounty MontCo and Prince George’s along the DC line. With the 8th shifted northward, the 4th is a bit more Montgomery-heavy, but stays majority African-American. This shift drops Obama’s performance by about 3%, but this is still the most Democratic district in Maryland at 82%.
| 5 | 661,222 | 352,347 | 30.44% | 64.23% | 34.51% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 79,363 | 47,288 | 5.90% | 43.67% | 54.55% | |
| Calvert | 74,563 | 44,057 | 13.11% | 46.07% | 52.42% | |
| Charles | 120,546 | 70,127 | 26.06% | 62.22% | 36.69% | |
| Prince George’s | 300,539 | 146,466 | 47.72% | 83.78% | 15.20% | |
| St. Mary’s | 86,211 | 44,409 | 13.92% | 42.84% | 55.63% |
Steny Hoyer’s district, again, experiences some minor shifts. It still contains all of the Southern Maryland trifecta of Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary’s. I had thought about cracking Charles to tap its population growth and Democratic trend, but ultimately decided against it. A large chunk of PG is taken by the 1st, so this district expands farther into Anne Arundel. At 64%, this is about a 1% drop.
| 6 | 663,091 | 354,947 | 3.61% | 35.44% | 62.22% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegany | 74,930 | 29,742 | 5.35% | 35.95% | 61.88% | |
| Baltimore | 50,784 | 32,008 | 1.36% | 32.03% | 65.08% | |
| Carroll | 150,897 | 84,760 | 2.28% | 33.11% | 64.30% | |
| Frederick | 97,113 | 54,983 | 2.06% | 40.21% | 57.86% | |
| Garrett | 29,846 | 12,872 | 0.43% | 29.02% | 69.17% | |
| Harford | 119,226 | 73,667 | 2.53% | 31.04% | 66.35% | |
| Howard | 8,372 | 5,315 | 4.60% | 34.51% | 63.03% | |
| Washington | 131,923 | 61,600 | 7.77% | 42.61% | 55.47% |
We took some Republicans out of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd districts, and this is where they go. I cut out Democratic-trending and sububanizing southern Frederick County and just packed as many deep-red VTDs in here as possible from Harford and northern Baltimore County. The Panhandle and Carroll County remain in their entirety. This drops Dem performance to 35%, down 5%.
| 7 | 661,710 | 265,229 | 55.65% | 72.99% | 25.62% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Arundel | 183,862 | 89,411 | 10.02% | 42.84% | 55.09% | |
| Baltimore | 44,406 | 18,118 | 10.72% | 46.90% | 50.51% | |
| Baltimore City | 433,442 | 157,700 | 79.60% | 93.08% | 6.05% |
Before, this district took in a large chunk of Howard County, before reaching into Western BaltCo and West Baltimore. We took the extremely Republican parts of Anne Arundel County out of the 1st, and this was the safest place to deposit them. The anchor of the district stays Baltimore City, which also maintains the 56% African-American composition of the district. At 73% Obama, this is a drop-off of 6%, but again, no cause for concern.
| 8 | 662,109 | 342,398 | 10.92% | 69.23% | 29.27% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick | 98,164 | 56,203 | 10.62% | 56.77% | 41.56% | |
| Montgomery | 563,945 | 286,195 | 10.97% | 71.68% | 26.85% |
It was tempting to make this district solely Montgomery County, but that’d well, be too clean. (It’d also abandon some strong Democratic votes in Frederick City.) Thus, this takes a bite out of Southern Frederick along 270, and then takes in the western half of Montgomery County and ventures east into Silver Spring. Frederick is nowhere as Democratic as downcounty Montgomery County, resulting in a 5% drop in Obama’s performance to 69%. Even if Frederick’s shift was a one-time thing for Obama, the vast majority of the district is still in Montgomery County.
So I’m pretty sure my map of Maryland is not only better – resulting an improvement for the three most marginal Democratic districts and negligible drops in the other 4 Democratic districts – but less gerrymandered, I dare say. Questions, comments, witty descriptors for what the districts look like, and suggestions always welcome.
Wow great work. I don’t know much about Maryland but good job making the 1st safer. Any chance you could make a dream map for Democrats like this for GA or NC? I know complete control of the process is unlikely in GA but I’d still like to see your version versus the more responsible versions offered up.
District 1 is especially impressive. I did not think it would be possible to make it an Obama district.
I think the two Congressmen who will be unhappy with this map are Cummings and Sarbanes. The former because you’ve given him some seriously Republican territory that tends to turn out but which he will never win, and the latter because you have, to my eyes, substantially reconfigured his district, pulling it somewhat northwest.
Otherwise, this is a very nice showing.
This is awesome, though I’d like to see a map where Obama got at least 58% of the vote in all 8 congressional districts, 2 of which would be at least 50% African-American. I did some calculations and I know this is possible.
Your 1st District isn’t going win you any friends at Fairvote.org, but in this case, that’s probably a good thing. Your 3rd District does looks a bit like the Flying Spaghetti Monster, but, as it happens, is a massive improvement.
If you’re interested in requests, have you taken a look at Oregon? I’ve been kicking that map around for a while and am having trouble squeezing out a 5th sufficiently Dem-leaning district. The best I’ve gotten so far is one going from Corvallis through Dallas and Salem to Dem-trending Bend (while avoiding Albany like the plague). That district voted for Obama by a few points and should strengthen Schrader, but Republicans still maintain a lot of support in this area (particularly in the state legislature), so I think there’s a good chance they could still pull off a upset.
an improvement over an already darn good Democratic gerrymander. I was wondering if it would be possible to pack Maryland Republicans into just one district, obviously it is.
could be gerrymandered much more than it was. I never dreamed Kratovil could be given such a friendly district.
This is really interesting reading, but wouldn’t redistricting the first across the Bay Bridge violate compactness standards? Also, if Frank Kratovil is gone in 2010, which is a very real possibility, then I don’t see the Democrats trying something so ambitious.
jeffmd – this is amazing – could you do this for Virginia next? We could get rid of at least one Republican congresscritter with a more fair redistricting. We might even be able to get rid of two Repugs. I’d really like to see what you could do, especially with the changes in population within Virginia in recent years.
To get a real Democrat elected in the MD-5? Because we evidently don’t have enough. Can we fix that with redistricting? Any rumors of a real candidate for that seat in the air?
With Kratovil’s win, we might actually be able to get to an 8-0 delegation with some very creative redistricting. Essentially, it’s not much different than your map, with a couple of changes around the eastern 6th. Like you suggested, Kratovil can be made safer by simply swapping the red Baltimore/Ann Arundel county (west bay) parts of the 1st with blue territory in the 3rd and 5th districts The 3rd district should also extend south of Baltimore into Howard County to take in the white parts of the existing 7th.
Now, remember that, besides Frederick and Hagerstown, the 6th isn’t that populous. So, the remaining five districts (2, 4, 6, 7 and 8) may be redrawn like the spokes of a wheel, with each district starting in Republican sixth district territory and extending deep into the Atlantic corridor. Specifically, the existing 2nd should take in Harford county; the 7th take in north Baltimore; the 4th Carroll, the 8th Frederick, and the 6th the thinly populated panhandle counties of Washington, Allegany and Garrett before taking a sharp southward turn at Hattiesburg and adding the partisan Democrats of Montgomery.
Are there such things for Georgia?
Somebody posted a comment yesterday asking where you got the colored Pennsylvania map (w/ Obama and McCain margins) but you never responded. I think other people may also be wondering where the map is from (including me). I was fascinated by it, but would find it of more use if it had cities/boroughs named on it and especially if it had existing C.D. lines superimposed on it.
But also the state legislature gerrymander of 2002 led to a decimation of republicans in Maryland. The republican bench of state legislators is practically non-existent in many areas of the state. Dems actually didn’t have enormous majorities in the state legislature prior to 2002, but now I believe both chambers are easily veto-proof majorities.
but I don’t like the looks of the proposed 1st district. I prefer physically contiguous districts whenever possible, even at the expense of partisan advantage.
I used to live in Virginia when the Eastern Shore was part of the Congressional District dominated by the peninsulas. We had absolutely no connection to the people on the other side of the Bay. It is now (properly) part of Glenn Nye’s district which is dominated by Va. Beach and is connected by the Bay-Bridge tunnel.